
After an abyssal invested volumes, French investments in real estate market began to recover, but the rebound will be very slow: this is essentially the conclusion of a study presented yesterday by the economists of the BNP Paribas Real Estate real estate services company. It is true is not the day to the next of this collapse issue: investment volumes have decreased by 50 in 2008 over 2007, to EUR 15.1 billion, and then relapsed 70 in the first half of 2009 over the first six months of 2008, 2.6 billion.
Nevertheless, noted BNP Paribas Real Estate experts, the second quarter ended by a reversing trend, with investment dating back to 1.7 billion euros, against 900 million between January and March through the return of a few large transactions, primarily in the real estate trade.

Rare foreign purchasers
Concerning the offices, the situation is however contrasted, Ile-de-France is exiting better than regions, and in particular the central district of the Affairs of Paris, where the rate of return (between 6 and 7) are again attractive in the eyes of investors. But the brakes to the resumption of the French market of real estate business are still powerful, especially the scarcity of international buyers (the purchasers came from Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom and North America virtually disappeared, leaving 80 market in the hands of French and German investors), and the persistent difficulties of financing (banks impose half of capital before agreeing to set up an operation)(, against 30 before the crisis). In these conditions, BNP Paribas Real Estate betting at the national level on a total of 6 to 7 billion euros of transactions throughout the year in real estate business, and perhaps on 7 and 8 billion by 2010.
Regarding transactions of offices in Ile-de-France, the volume rose to 860,000 square metres to the first half, down by 27 over the same period of 2008, corresponding to the degradation of the labour market (nearly 115.000 items removed in 2009 and 65,000 other that could be destroyed in 2010), and the fact that some owners prefer to renegotiate with their tenants of the more interesting conditions for them rather than find themselves with a empty building.
In this context, that affects all niches of surfaces, BNP Paribas Real Estate note however a trend: large transactions (greater than 10,000 square metres) resist better, through operations conducted by large groups for economies to streamline their premises or group together on one site. Movements that benefit including Western Paris, at the expense of the central business district, more expensive but where surfaces are smaller. Since 2008, the central business district is total so more that 12 of the volume of transactions, compared to 18 between 2005 and 2007.
With new offices in Ile-de-France, the offer available and current construction is significantly slowed (the second quarter is passed under the bar of the million meters square starts), insufficiently however, in view of the reversal of the market because, in the second quarter, the volume of supply of new grew by 34 in one year. At the same time, the supply of second hand increased by 24. Total (new and second hand), offices available one year offer should approach the 5 million metres square at the end of the year, against $ 4.6 million at the end of June, and could exceed 5.5 million at the end of 2010 in view of the weakness of the application.